COVID-19 changed many things.
It changed the way people worked.
It changed the way companies operated.
It changed how families thought about education, healthcare and security.
It also changed the way wealthy individuals think about where they live.
Before the pandemic, residence was often relatively static.
A wealthy individual might have lived in London for twenty years.
Or Paris.
Or Milan.
Or Geneva.
The location was determined by business, family and history.
COVID disrupted that assumption.
For the first time, many wealthy individuals discovered that they could operate their lives from somewhere else.
The question now is whether that change was temporary.
I do not believe it was.
COVID Changed the Psychology
The most important consequence of the pandemic was not the number of people who moved.
It was the number of people who realised they could move.
Technology made international business increasingly portable.
Private wealth became more internationally diversified.
Remote working became normal for large parts of the economy.
Families became more conscious of healthcare systems and political stability.
And wealthy individuals became much more interested in optionality.
A second residence was no longer simply a lifestyle purchase.
It could be an insurance policy.
The Wealthy Have Always Been Mobile
This is not entirely new.
The wealthy have always moved.
They have historically maintained homes in several jurisdictions.
They have established companies offshore.
They have used international financial centres.
They have educated children abroad.
But COVID accelerated something different.
It normalised the idea that the location of the individual does not necessarily have to match the location of the business.
That distinction is extremely important.
The Old Wealth Map Is Changing
For decades, the European wealth map was relatively predictable.
London.
Paris.
Geneva.
Zurich.
Monaco.
These were the established centres.
Today the map is considerably more complicated.
Dubai has become a major wealth centre.
Singapore has become increasingly important in Asia.
Portugal attracted internationally mobile families.
Greece became a major investment migration destination.
Italy developed a particularly attractive regime for certain wealthy new residents.
Cyprus and Malta continue to compete for internationally mobile capital and businesses.
The UAE has become particularly significant because it combines taxation, infrastructure, connectivity and a business-friendly environment.
The competition is no longer between a handful of traditional financial centres.
It is global.
Residence Is Becoming an Asset
This is perhaps the biggest change.
A residence permit used to be viewed primarily as an immigration document.
Increasingly, wealthy investors see residence as part of their overall asset allocation.
It can provide:
- mobility;
- access to education;
- family security;
- business access;
- lifestyle diversification;
- tax planning opportunities;
- and a contingency option.
The value is therefore not necessarily in the document itself.
The value is in the optionality it creates.
But Tax Still Matters
The pandemic did not eliminate tax competition.
If anything, it made it more visible.
A wealthy individual who can work from several jurisdictions naturally begins asking:
Where should I be tax resident?
Where should my company be based?
Where should investment income arise?
Where should my family live?
Where should my assets be held?
These are no longer separate questions.
They are becoming one strategic decision.
The Tax Regime Is Only One Part of the Equation
This does not mean wealthy individuals simply move to the jurisdiction with the lowest tax rate.
That is an outdated way of looking at wealth migration.
A jurisdiction needs much more than a favourable tax regime.
The wealthy investor is also considering:
Political stability.
Rule of law.
Banking.
Healthcare.
Schools.
Air connections.
Property.
Security.
Professional services.
Investment opportunities.
Quality of life.
And increasingly, the ability to build a genuine economic presence.
A low tax rate without the surrounding ecosystem is not necessarily attractive.
The New Investor Is More Sophisticated
The investment migration industry has also matured.
The early Golden Visa market was often based on a relatively simple proposition:
Buy an apartment.
Receive residence.
Today, the sophisticated investor is asking much more difficult questions.
What happens if the programme changes?
What happens if the property market falls?
What happens if the government changes the qualifying investment?
What happens to my tax position?
What is the exit strategy?
What is my investment return?
What happens to my family?
This is no longer simply an immigration decision.
It is a wealth-management decision.
COVID Created the Optionality Mindset
This may be the most permanent consequence of the pandemic.
Before COVID, having a second residence was often seen as a luxury.
After COVID, it increasingly became viewed as diversification.
The same principle applies to investment.
A wealthy family does not necessarily want all its assets in one country.
Why should it want all of its residence exposure in one country?
Why should its business exposure, tax exposure and family exposure all be concentrated in the same jurisdiction?
The pandemic made concentration risk much more visible.
Governments Are Responding
Governments have noticed the change.
Some want to attract wealthy individuals.
Others are becoming increasingly concerned about the consequences.
Portugal moved to restrict and ultimately eliminate its residential property Golden Visa.
Ireland closed its investor programme.
Greece increased its Golden Visa threshold in selected markets.
Other European countries are reviewing the balance between foreign capital, housing markets and public policy.
This creates an unusual situation.
The demand for mobility is increasing at the same time that some governments are making investment migration more difficult.
The Investor Is Looking for Stability
This is why programme stability may become more important than the headline investment threshold.
Suppose one country offers residence for €250,000 but has frequent political discussions about changing the programme.
Another requires €500,000 but has a stable legal framework and a diversified investment route.
The second programme may ultimately be more attractive.
The wealthy investor is not necessarily trying to minimise the initial investment.
He is trying to minimise uncertainty.
That is a different calculation.
The Property Model Is Under Pressure
The decline of the traditional property Golden Visa is therefore part of a larger development.
It is not simply about housing.
It is about the changing relationship between immigration and investment.
A government can justify foreign capital more easily when it can demonstrate that the money is financing businesses, infrastructure, technology or other productive assets.
It is more difficult to justify the same capital when it simply increases demand for an existing apartment.
This is why fund-based investment migration is becoming increasingly interesting.
Investment Migration Is Moving Into Wealth Management
The next generation of investment migration will increasingly sit between immigration law and wealth management.
The investor will not simply need an immigration lawyer.
He may also need:
A fund manager.
A tax adviser.
A private banker.
A lawyer.
An accountant.
An investment adviser.
An estate planner.
The residence decision becomes part of a much larger structure.
This is particularly true for families with significant international assets.
The Family Office Effect
Family offices are likely to accelerate this trend.
A family office does not normally make decisions based on a single benefit.
It looks at the total balance sheet.
Residence.
Tax.
Liquidity.
Investment return.
Succession.
Risk.
Governance.
Education.
Asset protection.
When investment migration is viewed through that lens, the property Golden Visa starts to look relatively unsophisticated.
A family office is more likely to ask whether the qualifying investment belongs in the family’s portfolio.
That changes the entire proposition.
The New Geography Is About More Than Moving
There is another important point.
We should not measure wealth migration simply by counting people who permanently relocate.
The modern wealthy individual may not live in one place all year.
He may spend part of the year in Monaco.
Part in London.
Part in Dubai.
Part in Switzerland.
Part somewhere else.
The relevant question is increasingly:
Where is the centre of economic and personal life?
That is a much more complicated question than simply asking where somebody owns a house.
Tax Authorities Are Paying Attention
This increased mobility also creates challenges for governments.
Residence cannot simply be declared.
Tax residence generally depends upon facts, circumstances and the applicable rules.
The wealthy individual therefore needs to distinguish between:
Having a residence permit.
Owning a property.
Spending time in a country.
And actually becoming tax resident there.
These are four different things.
Confusing them can create significant problems.
The Post-COVID Investor Is Not Going Back
I do not believe the post-COVID wealth migration phenomenon is simply a temporary reaction to lockdowns.
The pandemic accelerated structural trends that were already developing.
Digital business.
International investment.
Remote management.
Global families.
Multiple residences.
International education.
Geographic diversification.
The technology and infrastructure supporting these trends are now permanent.
The behaviour has changed with them.
But Not Everyone Will Move
There is an important counterargument.
Most wealthy individuals will not simply abandon their home country.
Family ties matter.
Business matters.
Culture matters.
Social networks matter.
Reputation matters.
The majority will remain connected to their original jurisdiction.
The change is that they increasingly want an alternative.
That distinction is critical.
The future of wealth migration may therefore involve fewer dramatic permanent departures and more sophisticated diversification.
The Second Residence Becomes the First Option
A second residence can provide something that a tax adviser cannot.
It provides choice.
If the political environment changes, the family has somewhere else to go.
If tax policy changes, the family has another jurisdiction to consider.
If security deteriorates, there is another base.
If business opportunities change, there is another market.
The option may never be exercised.
But having it has value.
This Is Why Investment Migration Will Survive
The political backlash against Golden Visas should not therefore be confused with the end of wealth migration.
The demand is structural.
Wealth is becoming increasingly international.
Families are becoming increasingly global.
Capital is increasingly mobile.
Technology has reduced the importance of physical location for many businesses.
And governments continue to compete for investment and talent.
The product is changing.
But the demand remains.
The Next Stage
The first era of investment migration was about property.
The second became about residence.
The next will be about wealth architecture.
Where you live.
Where you pay tax.
Where you invest.
Where you bank.
Where your family is educated.
Where your business operates.
Where your assets are held.
These decisions are increasingly connected.
The wealthy investor does not necessarily need one perfect country.
He needs a structure that gives him flexibility.
Permanent Change
COVID did not create wealth migration.
It accelerated it.
It showed wealthy individuals that geographic concentration carries risk.
It demonstrated that businesses can operate across borders.
It made international mobility more normal.
And it encouraged investors to think about residence in the same way they think about financial diversification.
The result is unlikely to disappear.
The European investment migration industry may be changing.
Golden Visas may be changing.
Property-based programmes may be disappearing.
But the underlying demand is not.
The wealthy will continue to seek better places to live, invest and protect their families.
The difference is that they are becoming much more sophisticated about how they do it.
The future of wealth migration is not necessarily about leaving one country for another.
It is about having the freedom to choose between them.